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Tuesday, July 16, 2024

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Maharashtra Dam

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Before June ends, there is little chance of significant rainfall in Maharashtra’s dam catchment areas:

According to independent weather forecasters, Maharashtra’s dam catchment areas are not likely to see substantial rainfall until the last week of June. This contrasts with the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s prediction of rain revival in the state starting around June 20. The IMD’s Global Forecast System anticipates monsoon-style rains beginning in Pune and its surrounding ghats from June 22-23. The forecast suggests light rain in Pune city until June 21, followed by light to moderate rainfall on June 22-23, with isolated heavy showers expected in the ghat areas until June 21, which could benefit dam catchments.

However, the independent forecaster adopts a more cautious stance, noting that the monsoon remains weak. He expects significant increases in water levels for dams in Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai, and Nashik only after June 24, due to delayed strong westerly winds impacting the north Konkan to northwest Sahyadri ghats around June 25-26. He forecasts widespread rainfall exceeding 100-150mm occurring predominantly in the last week of June. He suggests that favorable conditions for coastal areas might develop from June 19, with increased activity expected along the North Konkan coast between June 19-21, although dry air intrusion could reduce rainfall. Additionally, a new East-West shear zone forming around June 22-24 might intensify thunderstorm activity, but significant inflows into dams and lakes are not anticipated before June 24. He cautions that long-range forecasts could vary by up to two days due to changing weather dynamics.

In conclusion, the expectation for an active Monsoon surge, characterized by overcast skies, temperatures below 30°C, and frequent heavy rains, is postponed until the last week of June, according to the independent forecaster’s assessment.

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